Your Q4 budget is not a monthly number. It is a curve. Most brands we audit plan
By Gabriel Caceros · October 26, 2026 · Curated by George's Blog
Your Q4 budget is not a monthly number.
It is a curve.
Most brands we audit plan Q4 as three numbers.
October, November, December.
Then the platform spreads each one evenly across the days.
That is how a supplement brand ran last year.
$40K for November, paced flat.
Early November burned its share on average-intent traffic.
Black Friday capped out by 2pm.
Cyber Monday capped out before lunch.
The two days with the highest buying intent of the quarter were rationed like a Tuesday.
Demand in Q4 is not flat.
The budget should not be either.
This year we built their Q4 as a $100K weekly curve, from this week through the end of December:
→ Oct 26 and Nov 2: 6% each. Harvest, test, protect rank.
→ Nov 9: 7%.
→ Nov 16: 9%. Black Friday week is not announced yet, but it typically opens about a week before Black Friday.
→ Nov 23, Thanksgiving and Black Friday: 17%. The peak.
→ Nov 30, Cyber Monday week: 13%.
→ Dec 7 and Dec 14: 10% and 9%. Gift demand and Green Monday.
→ Dec 21 and Dec 28: 7% and 6%. Step down after delivery cutoffs.
→ Reserve: 10%, held back.
The reserve is the part most plans skip.
It is not extra money.
It is money with a rule attached.
We release it on a peak day only when two things are true: CVR is at or above plan, and the SKU has 30+ days of cover.
If either fails, the reserve stays put and becomes January's cushion.
The step-ups are scheduled with Amazon Ads budget rules, so nobody has to remember to raise a budget at midnight on Thanksgiving.
Last year, the flat plan left Black Friday and Cyber Monday capped for a combined 23 hours.
A home brand that ran a curve the same year capped out for zero hours on both days, and spent 8% less in early November.
A monthly number tells you how much.
A curve tells you when.
In Q4, most of the decision is made.
Draw the curve this week.
Then schedule it.
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