Founder: We're doubling our Black Friday budget this year. Last year we sold 35%
By brandonfishman · September 17, 2026 · Curated by George's Blog
Founder: We're doubling our Black Friday budget this year. Last year we sold 35% more units than any other week.
Me: What's the repeat rate on those buyers?
Founder: I'd have to check.
Me: Pull last year's Black Friday buyers specifically. Twelve months out. See who's still ordering.
Founder: Almost none of them.
Me: That's basically what we see across almost every brand we run cohort analysis on. Black Friday buyers wait for the next sale. They don't subscribe. They don't reorder at full price.
Founder: But we moved 35% more units. Isn't that the point of the week?
Me: Only if they come back. If they don't, you paid full ad spend and a deep discount for a customer who was never going to buy from you again.
Founder: So what do I do with the budget instead?
Me: Point it at your existing customers. Get the people who already trust you to stock up. Keep this year's new-customer discount smaller than last year's.
Founder: We'll get fewer new customers.
Me: I'd rather have 100 full-price customers than 500 Black Friday deal hunters. The LTV data backs it every time.
If your Black Friday plan is built around unit volume, pull last year's cohort before you set this year's budget. The number of repeat buyers will tell you where it actually belongs.
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